Well, it couldn't go on forever.
After running exceedingly well at Party's 5/10 six-max games, I finally hit a bit of a wall. Over my first 30,000+ hands at the level, I averaged over 4.1BB/100, an amazingly good rate. Last night I managed to average about -6.7BB/100 over 1500 hands (yes, for those doing the math, that's over $1000 in the red). That run--just one night, mind you--dropped my BB/100 average to under 3.6.
I think this goes to show how long the "long run" in poker really is. I could have another run like that tonight, and suddenly I'm at 3BB/100. Many very good players have broken even over 20,000, even 30,000 hands. I could have a run like that, and watch my win rate get sliced in half. Suddenly I'm at 1.5BB/100.
Of course, I could go on another hot streak and go back over 4BB/100. (Guess which scenario I'm rooting for?)
In other words, although I've played over 30,000 hands at this level, I really have no clue how good of a player I really am. Chances are that I'm a winning player, but as far as determing a reasonable level of monetary expectation for my playing, I have no clue.
All of this is why, despite being much more than adequately rolled, I'm not even considering moving up to 10/20 (or, God-forbid, 15/30) for quite a while yet. I'd like to get at least 100,000 hands in at 5/10 SH, plus a fair number more at 5/10 full ring, just to keep my full ring game in shape. I'd put my ETA at 10/20 at about June.
Tilting is something I've been good at avoiding, even during crushing downswings. Examing my play last night, though, I have to admit that I did tilt some. I think there's often an image some people have of someone on tilt as being some pissed-off guy betting and raising with crap or calling down with very mediocre hands. Tilt is often more subtle than that. For example, there were a few times last night when I raised with AK, got a couple callers, flopped an A or a K and was checked-raised on the turn and called down just to be shown A-rag or K-rag that hit their two-pair.
Now, anyone who's played the 5/10 SH knows that the turn C-R is as often a semi-bluff or all-out bluff as it is a real hand. However, with an A or a K on the board against a pre-flop raiser it is much less likely that the turn C-R is a bluff simply because the C-Rer has to imagine the preflop raiser made a hand and will call him down. Yet there I was, calling down and basically throwing chips away. That's tilt. Often I'm good at throwing hands away if I'm beat, but after a long series of always having the worst of it (my AK on a K-high board against AA, my AQ against AK on an A-high board, etc) I stopped playing each hand individually and started thinking "damnit, they can't ALWAYS have it."
I think another contributor was that I changed my playing environment fairly drastically. I started using the four-color deck, for better or worse. I also moded my tables to remove the dealer, avatars and chairs so that every player is simply a box next to the table with his screen name and chip-stack information. I think I might like the four-color deck. However, I'm unsure how I feel about removing the avatars--I got used to using them for identification purposes, which is important when one is trying to play six tables at once. If someone was tilting or just really wild (regardless of previous information I had on him) then I could easily remember that by remembering the table and avatar. Without the avatars, I've lost a key identification element. Remembering the table seat or screen name just isn't as effective as the more immediate-recall inherent in having a face to put with the player (even if it's the same face as at the other five tables). I may have to put the avatars back.
Of course, in order to start winning again, I'll have to once again be able to win with my sets, flushes and full houses, too. Heh.
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