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Comments

Myst

No, betting out is probably the best option here. You might have gotten KK to reraise you on the turn as well.

poker_wannabe

Maybe you're right. That's the beauty of poker--there's often not a 100% correct decision. My thinking was this:

I had been playing the hand really, really hard and so I think it would take a near-maniac to raise the turn with KK after having it be capped four ways preflop and on the flop. He has to be worried about AA, QQ or a smaller set. Personally, I had UTG on a big pocket pair (my powers of deduction are strong, I know) and so that meant either AA, KK or QQ since JJ-99 would have gotten out on the flop with that much action (and below that, ie, 55 or 33, people don't generally play as hard as he did preflop). There's only one way he could have AA, three ways he could have QQ but SIX ways he could have KK, so 60% of the time he has KK here.

I figured it had to be KK, but my main concern was QQ. If I go for the turn check-raise, that gives him a chance to three-bet (nevermind the off-chance of giving a free card).

What I failed to properly take into account was the fact that two other people were just tagging along. I'd say that 90+% of the time, one of them has a Q. This means that the chances of his having KK go through the roof (75% of the time, vs 12.5% for each AA and QQ), and the chances of giving a free card are almost nil: on a board of Q553, *someone*, whether it's KK or Qx, is going to bet and then call a raise.

One worry was when the third heart hit on the river. My full-ring game instincts took over and had me cursing myself--rarely in a full ring game, where any-two-soooted is the playing standard, will you ever get that much action four ways and have a flush card hit on the river without someone having made a flush. Luckily, I told myself "damnit, we're shorthanded!" and was able to keep betting out.

I still think I was a bit lucky no one was on the flush draw, though.

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