Introduction
Playing the 10/20 in New Orleans a week and a half ago, I played against this one old guy who was having one of the worst runs of poker I've seen in my life. In the period I sat at the table with him--approximately 6 or 8 hours--I watched Old Guy make second-place hand after second-place hand and burn through nearly $2500. At 10/20.
Now, a fair portion of those losses were his fault. He was calling raises with absolutely dominated hands (K4s, for example) and, predictably, being at the very least outkicked a large portion of the time. But, in the end, this guy couldn't catch a break. I mean, K4s and similar hands sometimes WIN. But his never did.
And, in the span of six or eight hours, a guy should expect to get a few monster hands and win some pots. Well, Old Guy was getting his monsters alright, but still didn't drag a pot. His turned nut flush would lose to a rivered full house; his flopped full house would lose to a higher, runner-runner full house. His set was the lower one in a set-over-set situation. At the very least, his flopped TPTK (top pair, top kicker) would lose to another guy's rivered TPNK (top pair no kicker)--someone who only had those three outs. Old Guy was, in his own words, "snakebit."
Watching him play, my emotions went from being unsympathetic (look at some of those hands he's playing! He's getting what he deserves!) to being sympathetic (Jesus, even when he's legitimate he can't win) to being a bit, well, scared. Scared because why can't that happen to me? Now I'm pretty good at not putting myself in situations where I will be making second best hands, but losing with nut flushes and full houses and sets time after time can happen to anyone. I've certainly lost my share of pots like that, but I've never had an extended run where just having an absolutely shitty hand like that happens every single time.
You know what's coming.
People who have been reading about my poker "career" since long before this blog started--I sent out my first trip report in February--know that I've had fantastic success in live poker, especially at casinos. In fact, in ten previous casino trips to this one, all three to five days each, I've logged nearly $10,000 in wins at games ranging from 2/4 (rarely) to 10/20 and 15/30 (by far the most common limits I've played). Over half of those winnings have come out of Las Vegas.
The one problem I've had with these successes is that I simply have not had an extended bad run. The biggest losses in terms of big bets that I've had were 50--twice I've had downturns that large, once at 10/20 and once at 15/30. Downward swings in the 30 BB range have even been fairly common--at least once per trip it seems--but quite temporary. All of this has added up to having never had a losing casino trip. I broke even once, and have been well positive each of the other nine trips.
Now, I hate to call not having an extended bad run a "problem", but in my mind I've been waiting for the other shoe to drop for quite some time. Typically before every trip I'm asking myself "Is this the one--the trip where I just get eaten alive?"
Yes, you definitely know what's coming.
All the great players talk about having extended downswing, how it happens to everyone. 300 BB is supposed to be the typical upper limit ($9000 at 15/30!) with swings of 400 BB even discussed. And here I was with my biggest swing being a paltry 50 BB. C'mon--either I was a world-class poker player wasting my skills at the dinky middle limits or my time just had not yet come.
As much as I would love to think of myself as a world class player, I think we can now safely say that my time simply had not yet come.
The Drive
This trip would feature, besides myself, a new buddy of mine who is also an aspiring poker professional (or, more accurately, an aspiring member of the never-have-to-get-a-job crowd). He'd been supporting himself since January primarily by playing online, and only had a few casino trips under his belt. He had never been to Vegas. Due to the short notice of the trip, and because neither of us were tied down by families, real jobs or anything else that would cause words such as "deadline" and "responsibility" to ever enter our daily conversations, we were going to drive out to Las Vegas, 1300 miles, and stay for six nights before driving back.
We left at about 9:30PM on Sunday 10/24 and the bad luck started immediately. Not an hour and a half out of Austin, I was driving on 290 W going a very reasonable speed when a cop coming the other direction blinked his flashers on at me, pulled a quick U-ey and pulled me over. His claim: 81 in a 65.
Now, I was being careful. I was following at the same speed as the cars maybe 500 ft in front of me, usually 75 MPH, and I was making sure to slow down every time a car passed coming the other direction (not very often, this being out in the middle-of-nowhere, TX). Of course what happened for those fateful five seconds were that I 1) didn't notice my speed had crept up slightly and 2) failed to slow down when I saw headlights coming towards me.
As usual, I was calm, polite, honest, and respectful towards the police officer. And, as usual, I got the full ticket. Sigh....life without boobs.
What got me, though, was the cop's final parting. He said, perhaps providing a civic service as to why I shouldn't speed, "There are a lot of deer out here, and at the speed you were going, one would end up in the car with you."
I don't doubt that what he said was true, but c'mon, at 75, the speed at which he did NOT pull over the people in front of me for going, the deer is just going to glance off the car and go bounding back into the woods? Give me a break! That deer is going to be just as exploded all over the front and inside of the car at that speed as at 81. But...I guess when your job is the arbitrary enforcement of arbitrary rules, you have to justify what you do somehow. Even if illogically.
Sigh.
The trip ended up taking just under 22 hours. We drove straight through, often with one person sleeping, one person driving. This was both of ours' first time driving through West Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and Nevada, so it was an experience. There was a lot of nice scenery and a lot of places I'd like to visit for a longer period of time--Tucson and Phoenix, I'll be back.
But nothing would get in between us and the goal of our trip. That, of course, being
Las Vegas
We came into Vegas tired, bedraggled and grinning like lunatics. It was barely 5pm local time Monday afternoon so in the bright sunlight the city looked sandy and worn rather than how it appears at night, glitzy and bright, but we were still ecstatic. After nearly 22 hours of candy bars, crinked necks and B.O., we were there.
I had been sick when we left and was still sick upon arriving, so I went nearly right to sleep while my buddy went to the Bellagio for the first time to play. I slept nearly 15 hours, and he lost about $300, so even then, all signs were pointing towards a bad trip.
Normally, I break down the days and the sessions I have. This trip, it will be unnecessary. I played every day and every time I played it was the 15/30 at the Bellagio. This might have been my first mistake. More on that later.
One other similarity between the sessions is that I ended every single one the same way.
Down.
Except for the last couple, I honestly can no longer even distinguish between sessions. The whole trip was that much of a continuous nightmare. I played some hands badly. I played some people badly. I chose to stay in some rather poor games. But, overall, I had some horrendous luck. Let's look at some of those hands.
1) There are a couple of early position limpers. The cutoff raises. I'm on the button and look down and see 44. Virtually assured of getting at least a five-way pot and position, I call. The big blind, however, reraises. The two EP limpers fold, and the CO and I both call.
The flop comes AQT with two clubs and I'm ready to ditch my hand quick. But, oddly, both the BB and the CO check. The BB is a solid player and so I can't imagine him reraising without a premium hand, so it seems to me that there is a decent chance he has KK or JJ. The only other possibilities are AA, QQ and AK and with a coordinated board like that, I expect he would be quite aggressive pretty early, even against only two other opponents. The CO was a late position raiser after a few limpers, so he really could have a wide range of hands, KQ, 99 - 77, JTs whatever. But bottom line was that each had a decent chance of having hands they'd get away from with an A on the board.
So I bet figuring that while I'm definitely behind, I may be able to get them to lay down their hands with that A on the board. Both call fairly quickly, though, and so I decide that unless I start sensing major weakness on the turn (people will often peel one off regularly on the flop) to give up.
The turn is a red 4, however, giving me a set, and I gain new life. BB checks again, but now the CO bets. Alarm bells are ringing now. What would he possibly play this way? AQ? AT? KJ? QQ, TT? He's basically saying he can beat an A, and if he can beat an A there seems to be a pretty decent probability that he could beat a set of 4's. I briefly consider folding, but call, hoping to see how the hand would play out. The BB now check-raises, and I absolutely know what he has. AA, flopped top set. CO calls and I muck without a doubt in my mind. River is a blank, bet-call, and BB shows AA to the CO's TT. Three sets in one hand. Ouch. At least I had the wherewithal to get out.
2) I open raise from the CO with AK. The SB calls and we're heads up. The flop comes K64, rainbow. SB checks, I bet, and she now checkraises me. I three-bet and she four-bets.
This is where I should have folded. 95% of the women players I play against are not that aggressive with something that couldn't beat TPTK. However, this was the first hand I played against her, and after giving up pots to unknown players that I would have won in previous trips ("I can only win if they are insanely stupid" turned out to be "they really are insanely stupid") I made a promise with myself to at least call down in instances where I'm pretty sure I'm beat based on the betting, but that the player is unknown. I call down, she has KK.
Another reason I should have folded is that, playing 15/30, she's most likely smart enough to figure I could very well at least have AK. There was no flush draw on the board, and the unlikely straight draw never materialized, yet she kept going. The chances she was even semi-bluffing were nearly nil. The only possible hand she could have had were AA, KK, KQ, KJ, 66 and 44. And if she played KQ and KJ that strongly against a preflop raiser and on-the-flop three-bettor, she would go against 95% of the women players I've ever played against. What could she possibly think I have for her to bet like that with a hand I could beat?
Ultimately, that should have been an easy fold, and one that I would have made had I not promised myself to at least see the cards of a completely unknown player before I go and try to make a big laydown.
3) Folds around to a very aggressive but good player two off the button. He's a guy who will keep going with AK or AQ even if he airballs. BUT, if he raises, he has something. CO calls. I look down and see AQo. To an early position raiser, this is an easy fold, but to someone in such late position, well, I can't go off automatically assuming he has me beat. I call, as does the BB. Flop comes Qc7c4c. I have no clubs. Super Aggressive Guy bets, I raise, he three bets.
Now, SAG would do this with the bare Ac most likely, regardless of his other card, but would also do this with, say, AA, KK, QQ or a made flush, and so I'm stuck in a bad position--either I'm ahead somewhat, or I'm miles behind. He's also exuding, unconsciously, a lot more strength than he normally shows, which means he is probably strong but also nervous because of the suited board. Immediately AA with the A of clubs flashes through my mind. Having not won a hand yet, and having been up against some monsters already, I once again make a bad decision and ignore my read. My knowledge that he would play other hands I could beat aggressively convinces me to call him down. The turn is a blank and the river is an A and so I have top-two. I still only call. He shows, naturally, AA with the A of clubs.
At this point, my mistake was probably in not getting up from the table and taking a break. Not because I was pissed off or anything, but simply because I had a clear read and I chose to ignore it, in part because, well, jeez, what are the chances that I'm up against a big PP again? I wasn't playing my A game, heck I wasn't playing my B game. I was playing C+ poker, and that isn't enough to do well at 15/30, especially games that haven't been especially soft yet. I was making correct reads, but I was failing to make folds that I should be able to (and typically am able to) make. I should have at least dropped down to 8/16 or so, to gain back some confidence playing against transparent, bad players. But I didn't.
4) I'm in a tight game, where all too often one raise will let someone steal the blinds. I've already asked for a table change, but that hasn't come in yet, so I'm stuck playing a game I don't want to be playing. I've already lost a bit of my stack when the over-aggressive button raised with J7o and I called with 77 in the BB and the flop came Jxx. This one lady raises from EP and I'm in the CO with 55. I've played against her on a few previous trips and my book on this lady tells me "watch out." It folds to me and it's pretty clear that folding is the correct option.
Once again, though, I talk myself into making the bad play. It's a tight game, she's an attentive player, she's been raising more often than anyone else at the table, so she could be raising with a lot of hands, perhaps having adjusted to the super-tight table. I call, as does the BB. The flop comes Ad5d4d, giving me a set but with a suited board. BB bets, EP raises and I three-bet. BB folds, EP calls. I think she most likely has AK or AQ with the K or Q of diamonds since she seems a little more sure of herself than I expect she would if she had AK or AQ with no diamonds. Also, I expect a four-bet if she has AA. She check calls the turn and the river, a 7 and a T, both black.
"Three fives," I call out after she calls my river bet. She shakes her head, not in disgust, but in pity. My heart sinks. "No good, huh?"
"Nope," she says sympathetically as she turns over AA.
"Good hand." And it was.
5) I'm in a GREAT game, with three or four super-loose players, and at least two players who shouldn't be playing 3/6 much less 15/30. UTG is a player who is a little too loose, but very aggressive. He knows what a good hand is, but he seems to still only play his own cards, not react to how other people are playing. UTG+1 is one of the morons. He obviously has no clue what he's doing--it's all just bingo to him. He's playing every hand to the river, where he'll fold if he has nothing, or call if he has even the slightest hand. Naturally he was swinging wildly, but the last 30 mins have seen him win about $1500.
UTG now raises and UTG+1 calls. It folds around to me in late position and I look down to see KK. I three-bet, the SB calls, UTG four-bets, and I cap it, with the other two calling along. At no point do I think UTG has AA.
The flop comes J32 and it's checked to me where I bet. SB folds in disgust, UTG calls and UTG+1 calls. Turn is another 3, and I'm feeling better. It checks to me, I bet, both call. River is a 9. UTG now appears like a rock--he apparently checks but I don't notice it how I noticed his previous checks. The dealer has to tell me that he checked. Normally this would send alarm bells ringing (it does a little bit) but, probabilistically, that 9 didn't help him a bit. It's a huge pot, I've been running badly, I'm not going to start seeing monsters under the bed, I'm value betting this sonuvabitch!
I bet and UTG now check-raises. UTG+1 folds and I slump there, defeated.
"Really?" I ask. He just sits there. I know he has me beat. He has JJ or 99. But with JJ, he would have raised the turn....and 99? Would he really call the whole way, KNOWING I have a big pair, to hit a 9? Instead of thinking "what could he have that I could beat" I think "what are the chances he has something that I can't beat?" The chances were low, but really, he wasn't an imaginitive player, he just played the hand he had, and so he must have had me beat.
I call. He has 99. Of course. And the SB says that she had A9s, so the 9 that came was, of course, the case 9.
Two mistakes cost me $60 in that hand. One was betting the river when he had an obvious but not conscious change in habits and two was calling the check-raise when he was a guy who didn't have the brainpower to try a river bluff.
6) Same game, not too long after. I'm in the SB with 96o. Every single person at the table calls. I complete the measly $5 getting 29 to 1. The flop comes an amazing 875, with two clubs, giving me the nuts. That was mistake one, apparently, flopping the nuts against nine opponents.
I check, BB bets, every single person calls. I check-raise, everyone calls again. The turn, as what seems to always happen with straights, is a 6. I bet out again, but now it's raised and re-raised behind me. Everyone folds to me. The lady who reraised was really aggressive, and now that I think about it, very likely might have reraised with just a 9. I think about it a bit, and imagine the chances that neither of them have T9 given that I had been showing strength the whole way, and now it's been raised twice behind me. I fold. She ends up taking down the pot without a showdown on the river.
"Did you have nine-ten?" I ask her.
"Yeah," she answers.
But I'm still not sure. 80% sure, yeah, but not 100% sure. After watching her play a while longer, I'm convinced that she was the type who would have raised just a 9 until the cows came home. But then, having eventually moved to the seat next to her and seeing her cards for a few hands, I also never saw her once lie about what cards she had. So who knows. A shitty hand nonetheless.
7) I'm in the BB with KsJs. MP, a very bad player, raises. There are seven people in the pot and I call, figuring that I'll either hit hard or get out. The flop comes K88 rainbow. I bet out, knowing that at this aggressive table, if ANYONE has a K, they'll raise, especially MP who would raise with AK or AA. If she raises, I decide, I'm out. To my surprise, it goes fold, fold, MP calls, and two other people call. The turn is a deuce and I bet out again, knowing I'm good. MP calls and the other two drop. What would she raise with preflop and then call with so passively? QQ is far and away the most likely hand I put her on. I'm value betting this on the river as long as it's anything but...
The river, of course, is a Q. I know she doesn't have JJ or TT. She has QQ. I check.
"I know exactly what she's going to show me," I say to the guy next to me even before she bets. I call, numb from it all. She flips up QQ.
"Good hand."
The guy next to me tells me, "I had a Q that hand, so that was the case Q."
Thanks, guy.
8) I get dealt QQ, both black, in the SB. EP, a very good player raises. There are some callers, and I three bet. Everyone calls. EP would have reraised with AA or KK and so I'm now just rooting not to see an A or a K on the flop. Six of us see the flop for three bets. The flop is 988 with two clubs and a spade. I bet, and every single person calls. I perhaps should have gone for a check-raise here, although as it turns out, that most likely would not have changed the outcome of the hand. The last thing I wanted to do, however, is give a free card. The turn is a red deuce. I bet and every single person calls. In my head, I'm silently cheering the river, "blank! blank!" I know I'm good. The river is a red 5. I bet EP calls yet again and now this one lady in MP raises. It folds around to me.
Once again, I know I'm beat. I seriously doubted she had an 8. But against someone playing as strongly as me and a caller in EP, the fact that she was raising said that she had a legitimately strong hand, one that could beat two-pair. Whether she hit a straight on the river or had a full house, she had me beat. Yet, I still paid her off. 55. Yet another rivered set. She took down the nearly $700 pot.
Looking back, I can't really complain about being sucked out on during this hand. Five other players were in. I can only imagine, collectively, how many outs they had against me. I'm sure any A or K would have killed me (although my guess is that there were a lot of those in people's hands). Someone probably had JT so, while a Q would have been nice to hit, a 7 would have killed me. Any club most likely would have killed me. That still leaves pocket pairs. There was at least one, perhaps two out there. So there were a lot of outs against me.
But still, yet again, I was in a big pot with the single favorite hand and came up empty.
9) This was probably the hand that underscored how my entire week went. I was always either behind in situations where I couldn't expect to necessarily be behind, or I got sucked out on in situations where I was miles ahead. Or, in this case, both.
I open raise from MP with AdTd. A very strong player reraises from LP and an EP limper calls. The three of us see the flop, AcQd7d, giving me top pair with the nut flush draw. I check to the reraiser who bets, EP calls and I now check-raise. Call, call.
The turn is the 9d giving me the nuts. EP checks, I bet and now LP raises. EP folds and I can't imagine any hand LP would play this way except QQ (AA was unlikely because I had an A, two diamonds were unlikely because the biggest diamonds he could have had were KJ and he wouldn't reraise that preflop. 99 and 77 also were unlikely because he wouldn't reraise pairs that small). I reraise, and he calls. Once again, I'm silently rooting for the river "No board pair, no board pair!" Boom, right off comes the 7c. I check. Once again, in a better frame of mind, I would have folded. But disbelief over not being able to win a single substantial pot all week and the slight possibility that he maybe has AQ makes me pay off his river bet.
"Did you fill up?" I ask.
"Yup." And over he turns QQ.
"Nice hand."
And there were many others. I had KQ against AK, with a board of KKxxx. I hit a straight and a guy rivered a boat. I had QQ against 54 and, heads up, the guy hit a 4 on the flop and a 5 on the river. I had AA against QQ and TT, capped preflop three-ways, and TT caught his set on the turn. Etc, etc, etc. I literally could not win a large pot the entire week (well, okay, I won ONE, exactly). The only flush I made all week, literally, was the one just described. Otherwise, my flush draws were huge leaks: call, call, call, fold.
I had some monsters. I hit quads three times. Every single time I was heads up, and every pot was less than $200--only once did someone call my river bet. Once someone folded to my river bet, and once someone folded to my turn check-raise.
I hit two full houses. One was a medium-sized pot where I trapped two players, check raising both the flop and the turn, before they each folded the river. And one was a fairly large pot, slightly over $500, for the only large pot I won all weekend.
I hit very few sets. Besides the two I lost with, I hit a set of Js in a three way pot that held up, and I hit a set of 7's heads up where the guy folded to a flop bet.
I had AA eleven times. I won eight. I can tell you right now that each of the eight pots I won were tiny (one was a quads hand, many were heads up where the guy folded on the flop or turn) and each of the three I lost were substantial pots.
In a nutshell, I was running badly. I was "snakebit." My good hands were few and far between and either won me a tiny pot, or cost me a huge chunk of change. I would completely airball with just about every AK or AQ or pocket pair I got, and I couldn't successfully bluff for the life of me. And I certainly didn't help my cause by making questionable calls after I knew I was beat. But in the end, the entire week was a nightmare, an unmitigated disaster, to which I can blame myself for perhaps even 10 or 20% of the bad results, but for which the bulk of blame resides in simply the horrendous run of cards I was having.
The final tallies:
Tuesday, I lost $430 (my typical buy-in at 15/30 is $700).
Wednesday, I played briefly at The Orleans, and the play there was horrible, but at the 10/20 I had some bad hands and ended up losing $124. I came back to the Bellagio and I lost $697, for a total loss of $821.
Thursday I lost $700.
Friday I lost $700.
Saturday I lost $700.
Sunday, I cried. Okay, not really, but I wanted to. I busted each of the last four nights there. During only two sessions was I ever up--my very first session I was up $110 briefly, and the Thursday session I was up about $550 at one point (!!). When you can't win a hand, blinds, and playing and airballing AK and 99 and such and occasionally hitting a big hand only to lose will drain your stack quicker than you can believe.
Overall, I lost $3351, or about 112 big bets, in what was probably 50 - 60 hours of play.
Big bets wise, that's certainly not the worst run people have had. I've had worse runs online, and I'm still a big winner there. But when it happens at the highest limit you play, it can take a big bite out of your bankroll.
My friend also had a bad run, although not nearly as bad. He had a long very slow drain before having a huge rush his final day to finish the trip about even.
Phoenix and The Return
We left Las Vegas at about 2:30PM Sunday afternoon.
That night we drove through Phoenix and what should be blinking along the side of the highway but a sign for the Gila River Wild Horse Pass Casino. Not knowing any Phoenix area casinos, we figured that one was as good as any, so we stopped off, for--what else--some more poker!
The largest limit they offered was 4/8 with a full kill, although they had a "list of interest" going for 6/12, a game that never materialized. 4/8 was fine with us. In two or three hours we each finished up. I hit more flushes in that short span of time than I hit all week in Vegas--three to be exact. I hit two sets, I hit a full house, and I was generally running--brace yourselves--well! I finished up $213 at mostly 4/8, with a little 3/6 played at first.
Then on we went, driving through the night again and coming back to Austin at about 2PM Monday afternoon, where I then promptly fell asleep for 15 hours.
Conclusion
Thus, I finished the trip down $3138.
The best thing I can do now, besides take a break and get my mind on other non-poker things, is to get back to my game. Previous trips, I played extremely disciplined poker. I would limit my time at the table, I would play lower limits (8/16 usually) on non-prime nights, like Wednesday or Thursday, and if I got tired, I would quit playing or play 8/16. I got away from that this trip. Perhaps I got egotistical, perhaps, it's just easier to be disciplined when you're up $600 rather than down $600. All I know is that I'm not helping myself by sticking in games that I should be leaving, and playing 10 or 12 hours with only breaks to eat or use the bathroom. Yes, I'm there to play poker, but ultimately, I'm there to make money and continue to support myself doing something I love to do so that I don't have to do the ol' "work 9-to-5 for some idiot doing a job you hate just to get a paycheck" routine.
I've had success in the past and I'm sure I'll have success in the future. This trip was a wakeup call that will hopefully serve its purpose as a "Remember the Alamo" type call during future trips when I want to stay at the table even though it's getting late or the game has tightened up considerably. Remember "The Vegas Trip" ya moron and play your best poker!
All in all, though, I still love Vegas, I love the games and I really can't wait to go back again!
Before I go, I should probably briefly review the two casinos I'd never been to before since I know some people would like at least an opinion.
The Orleans poker room was nowhere near as nice as the Bellagio's (of course, no one's is) but the 10/20 game there was Jooooooosy. They were some of the worst 10/20 players I've played against. There doesn't appear to be smoking in their main poker room, either. The game selection wasn't great--they had abundant 2/4 and 4/8 but only one 6/12 and one 10/20 game going. That was a Wednesday afternoon/early evening, though, so who knows what it's like on the weekends. Small sample size, yes, but if you're looking for 10/20, the Orleans definitely seems to be a place to try.
The Gila River casino's poker room is smoking, and they seem to offer only fairly small limits (of course that's on a Sunday night, who knows what they do on Fridays or Saturdays). The dealers were competent and the players were horrible, even for 4/8 (I've played the Bellagio 4/8, Mandalay Bay 4/8, Mirage 3/6 and 6/12 and these were the worst players in that range that I've seen, except perhaps for Mandalay Bay). Maybe, once again, it was just small sample size, or maybe there's something to be said about hitting games in casinos that aren't the "hot spot."
Finally, on an interesting note, the very first night I walk into the Bellagio, who do I see but Paul Prudhomme, the world-renowened chef I had played against just days before in New Orleans! What a coincidence, but nothing too surprising. I've randomly encountered more people I know in the Bellagio poker room than any other single place in the world. We played at the same table for a few hours and initially he seemed to recognize me, although we never ended up exchanging words.
Anyways, that's long enough. In a couple of days I'll wrap up October and hopefully have some positive results to report as I return to playing mostly online this month.
Comments